pooh-bah

Analysts from China and the US expressed concern over an impending downturn of bilateral relations in the new year as sensitive issues, including Washington's arms sales to Taiwan, US President Barack Obama's scheduled meeting with the Dalai Lama and more trade frictions, loom.

The Washington Post reported Sunday that the Obama administration is expected to approve the sale of several billion dollars' worth of Black Hawk helicopters and anti-missile batteries to Taiwan early this year, possibly accompanied by a plan gauging design and manufacturing capacity for diesel-powered submarines for the island.


Obama is also preparing to meet the Dalai Lama after he declined a meeting last year, the report said.


Shi Yinhong, professor of international politics at Renmin University, said that some major disputes between China and the US have not been solved, but they have been postponed from Obama's first year in office to his second.


"The two planned events are against core Chinese interests," Shi said. "China could postpone or suspend some of the cooperative projects between Beijing and Washington, especially those that appear more urgent for the US."


"Obama would find it a thorny task to time the two events to minimize their negative effects," Shi added.


The US administration has already seen the possible damage to US-China relations caused by the two events. "At a minimum, US officials expect that (Chinese) President Hu Jintao will not attend a planned nuclear security summit scheduled for April. China could also halt the resumed US dialogue with China's military, which had been one of the central goals of this White House's China policy. Any hopes for China's cooperation in Afghanistan are also in question," the Washington Post said.


China suspended military-to-military contacts with the US after former president George W. Bush notified Congress in October 2008 of plans to sell Taiwan an arms package valued at up to $6.4 billion.


Jin Canrong, deputy director of the School of International Studies at Renmin University, argued that China should also be prepared with more trade friction and disputes over the exchange rate in 2010.


"The US would be more wary of China as the country is to overtake Japan as the second largest economy in the world, causing more fluctuations for the bilateral ties," Jin said.


National Public Radio reported Saturday that "(China's) rising economic power could prompt governments to take a harder line with Beijing in regard to trade, investment and exchange-rate issues, with the prospect of increasing conflict rather than growing cooperation."


Sun Zhe, director of the Center for US-China Relations at Tsinghua University, estimated that trade conflicts, together with the proposed arms sale to Taiwan and Obama's planned meeting with the Dalai Lama, are almost bound to happen in the first quarter of this year.


"The Obama administration could do little to avoid industry associations in the US, for example the National Association of Manufacturers, from announcing new protective measures against China, even if government departments refrain from pressing China over the value of the yuan or on other issues," Sun said. (Global Times)