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Analysis: Obama's China trip shows power shifting

This topic has been highlight by szh at 2009-11-18 08:25.

Analysis: Obama's China trip shows power shifting




President Barack Obama's first visit to China underscored a shifting balance of power: two giants moving closer to being equals.


In this week's choreographed show of U.S.-Chinese good will, Obama's pledge to treat China as a trusted global partner won a return promise of shared effort on world troubles — but not much else.


Standing stiffly together in the Great Hall of the People after a morning of talks, Obama and President Hu Jintao talked expansively Tuesday of common burdens and joint efforts on global warming, nuclear disarmament, the anemic economy and other big issues. They dealt coolly with differences over human rights and trade, leaving them out of public view or reserved for coded language.


Their first formal summit featured none of the rancor that spoiled many previous summits between the nations. If there was any pressure on Beijing to make immediate concessions, neither leader let on.


But Obama went into the meetings with a weaker hand than most past presidents. The battering that economic recession and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have given U.S. prestige is felt nowhere more keenly than in a China that is busily growing and accruing global clout.


"The U.S. has a lot to ask from China," said Xue Chen, a researcher on strategic affairs at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. "On the other hand, the U.S. has little to offer China."


Obama's outreach here continued the type of pragmatic bridge-building he has used in Europe and the Middle East in hopes of earning goodwill that will produce payoffs down the road.


In China, though, the challenge is of a different magnitude. The Chinese government is America's biggest foreign creditor, with $800 billion of federal U.S. debt that gives it extraordinary power in the relationship. Its military buildup is rubbing up against America's influence in Asia. And Beijing feels the global recession, sparked by U.S. financial industry excesses, vindicates its authoritarian leadership.


Gone are the days when a U.S. president could come to China expecting the release of a dissident or a trade concession as an atmospheric sweetener. For Obama, he not only didn't get that, but not one notable shift by the Chinese toward U.S. positions in key areas such as climate, nuclear challenges in Iran and North Korea, human rights or monetary policy.


For Obama, going back home from a weeklong Asia trip with little more than hopes that he's laying groundwork for better cooperation could sour, fast, on Americans. He was elected in part because of his promises to restore the battered U.S. image abroad. But if the cost of that is too much listening and too little getting, the public could well grow impatient.


One sign, albeit small, that people are growing weary with Obama's pragmatic humility overseas: A mini-furor erupted in the U.S. when he bowed to greet the emperor of Japan in Tokyo on Saturday. Conservative commentators are calling it another instance of groveling before a foreign leader.


The effect could stretch beyond foreign affairs. Many Americans still think of the U.S. as an unassailable superpower and don't want presidents who make them think otherwise. Problems in this area could make it more difficult to forge ahead with already divisive health care reforms, make bold choices on a new strategy for the drawn-out war in Afghanistan, or get re-elected.


For China, Hu and other leaders clearly delighted in the show of face Obama gave them. Far from crowing, however, Hu gave Obama a respectful welcome by soldiers in dress uniforms in the Great Hall of the People and in-depth discussions that ran overtime.


At a state banquet Tuesday night, the People's Liberation Army band serenaded Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and much of the Chinese leadership with American songs including "I just Called to Say I Love You," "We are the World" and "In the Mood."


The joint statement that Obama and Hu issued was the broadest of its kind in 30 years of formal relations. It contained expressions of cooperation in relations between their two often-mistrustful militaries, on a human rights dialogue, on space exploration and on shoring up Afghanistan and Pakistan — as well as the big topics of climate change, economic recovery and defanging North Korea's and Iran's nuclear programs.


Chinese leaders, however, are wary of Obama's charisma. Though they prevented a nationwide broadcast and censored Web transcripts of a town hall-style meeting he held with Chinese students in Shanghai on Monday, students who attended said they found Obama and his rise to the presidency inspiring. Bloggers cheered his appeal against censorship of the Internet.


"It's wonderful to have the President Obama here," Lu Hualin, a middle-aged office administrator in Beijing's business district, said Tuesday. "I didn't watch the town hall, but it's pretty obvious that the Chinese really like him for the energy, intellect and charisma he brings to the conversation. I think we'll welcome anyone who has an agenda to better the world and work toward world peace."


Obama's talk about "shared burdens" among global partners both flatters and troubles a Chinese leadership consumed with guiding a rapidly changing society that is expecting freer expression and rising living standards.

"Obama is more cooperative and respectful. But the secret meaning of this smart diplomacy is to show a smiling face while taking money out of your pocket," said Jin Canrong, an international affairs expert at Renmin University. "Many partners, including China, are not ready to take on that responsibility."

Given the conflicting agendas, a danger is that the U.S. and Chinese governments may misinterpret how far each is willing to accommodate the other. Hints of discord were evident beneath the edifice of cooperation in Obama's and Hu's joint appearance Tuesday.


On North Korea and Iran, Obama said negotiations provided a way forward but stressed that should they fail both countries would face consequences. With China's budding energy investments in Iran and worries about instability in neighboring North Korea, Hu merely cited a need for continued talk.


Hu said each country should respect the other's "core interests" — code for Washington to end arms sales for Taiwan and support for the Dalai Lama's Tibetan exiled government. The Xinhua News Agency later quoted Hu as saying Washington should also ban advocates for Muslim ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang, the western China region where anti-Chinese rioting flared anew this summer.


Said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs later: "I did not expect, and I can speak authoritatively for the president on this, that we thought the waters would part and that everything would change over the course of our almost two-and-a-half-day trip to China."


AP

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Obama won no concessions from China on points at issue

President Barack Obama on Wednesday wraps up a three-day visit to China that's left him keenly aware of the limits of his administration's leverage over this economic powerhouse on issues from currency exchange rates to human rights.


Obama has little leverage over China , in part because the U.S. depends on the Chinese to finance the U.S. government's growing debt, and because of the perception in China , which for years was an economic nonentity, that the U.S. is troubled and China is ascendant.


Administration officials said that the China stop, part of a four-nation Asia tour that will conclude Thursday in South Korea , was a success because it laid the groundwork for a more focused U.S.- China alliance to tackle everything from global warming to nuclear weapons containment.


China gave no evident ground on the points at issue, however.


"The meetings and the focus from a substance standpoint really have been aimed at coordinating like never before on the key global issues that together are headline issues for the United States ," said Jon Huntsman , the U.S. ambassador to China .


White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said: "I did not expect, and I can speak authoritatively for the president on this, that we thought the waters would part and everything would change."


Obama summed it up this way in a joint appearance Tuesday with President Hu Jintao : "The relationship between our two nations goes far beyond any single issue."


Hu and Obama announced potentially significant new agreements on advancing clean energy and scientific research. Both committed to work toward global warming initiatives and reiterated a mutual desire to contain the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran .


In two areas in which the United States wants to shift China's positions — valuation of the Chinese currency and the Chinese government's censorship practices and human rights abuses — no advances were announced, however.
The U.S. is the world's largest economy; China's the world's most populous nation, with the third largest gross domestic product. China has helped keep the American economy afloat through the recession. Its huge trade surplus with the United States — and the $800 billion worth of American government debt that it holds — is economically unsustainable and leaves the U.S. dependent on Beijing's financial favor, however.


Obama has called for China to stop undervaluing its currency and adopt a more market-based standard as one way to begin reducing the trade imbalance.


"I emphasized in our discussions, and have others in the region, that doing so based on economic fundamentals would make an essential contribution to the global rebalancing effort," Obama said.


Hu didn't mention currency policy in his public statement. Instead, he jabbed the U.S. for trade policies that he said held China back.


"I stressed to President Obama that under the current circumstances, our two countries need to oppose and reject protectionism in all its manifestations in an even stronger stand."


Obama also said he'd reiterated in private to Hu that there are certain "universal" human rights that should be available to all people, including a nation's ethnic and religious minorities.


Standing side by side with Hu, Obama mentioned Tibet , saying that while the U.S. recognizes it as part of China , the Chinese government should resume talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the government in exile.


Hu remained expressionless throughout Obama's remarks.


Other aspects of Obama's visit also were sobering. Even as he arrived Sunday night, human rights organizations reported that the Chinese government was rounding up and arresting dissidents to ensure that they couldn't reach out to the U.S.

The following day, Hu allowed Obama's town-hall meeting, the first such event for a Western leader in China , to air on local television in Shanghai — but not nationally.

Hu didn't agree to any news conferences at which reporters could ask questions. Chinese authorities even detained a Beijing -based reporter for CNN for displaying an "Oba-Mao" T-shirt that depicted Obama dressed as the late communist founder of the People's Republic of China .

While Obama is popular with many Chinese, the public's reception of him hasn't been nearly so effusive as the rock-star treatment he's gotten in other parts of the world.

There were no chants of "O-ba-ma!" at the town hall meeting. Instead, 400 students selected by authorities at their universities awaited his arrival in silence, sitting rigidly and displaying little emotion.

Shen Yi , an assistant professor of international politics at Fudan University in Shanghai , said that Chinese interest in Obama during last year's election wasn't about his stance on currency or human rights in China , but about a broader expectation that over time he'd somehow reshape America's role in the world.

That, the professor said, will take time to come into focus.

"The popularity of candidate Obama is mainly rooted in a simple idea: He will make a real change in the U.S., especially in foreign policy."


Despite the risks and shortcomings of the visit, Obama enjoyed colorful interactions and historic sights on his first visit to the nation of 1.3 billion people.


He toured Beijing's Forbidden City, long the seat of China's emperors, on Tuesday, wearing a leather jacket with fur trim, and described the grounds as "spectacular." The president and his entourage ascended 30 steps and went down another 30 into the courtyard. Then they walked up a steep stone stairway and entered the Tai He Dian, or "Hall of Supreme Harmony," built in 1420 and reconstructed in 1695.


Later, Obama attended a state dinner at which the music program included a rendition of Stevie Wonder's "I Just Called to Say I Love You," a recognition by the Chinese of one of Obama's favorite performers.


By Margaret Talev, McClatchy Newspapers Margaret Talev

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the wind is blowing eastwards

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China should stand firm and still when facing pressures from whoever and whatever directions, and bear in mind its own national interests and its people's livelihood. It should not yield too much for the so-called international recognition, actually the U.S. approval, at the cost of basic interests of the country and the people.

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Success of China

The success of China to move up in it's global standing and avoid the serious impacts of the financial downturn of the west proves that it has better sense.  Standing firm on the issues that keeps China strong or growing means that it only asks for change in areas that need it.

The frequency of personal meetings and other forms of communications direct with President Hu and Obama or their special advisers should increase as closer ties are set up and tuned.  As these ties are strengthened and as the people in America begin to see more clarity and transparency in the development of ties with the people of China, the true power shift will be taking place openly to balance between the two countries.  It is a true sign of the supreme power that China is taking the initiative in driving the shift.  It is not in an abrupt or forceful manner, but one that promotes cooperation and a shared trust.

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